ACUS11 KWNS 232043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232043=20
TXZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232043Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development may intensify further,
with at least some potential to consolidate into an increasingly
organized cluster posing a risk for large hail and a swath of
damaging wind gusts. It is not yet clear that a watch will be
needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate
in a corridor near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into the
Lufkin/Huntsville vicinities. This appears to aided by forcing for
ascent driven by weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
downstream of a significant, but weakening cluster of storms now
propagating southeastward into/across the Red River Valley. This is
also focused along the eastern periphery of a plume of warm, capping
elevated mixed-layer air, which appears to be support CAPE up to
4000 J/kg for boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 70's F+
dew points.

Beneath 25-30+ kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb, deep-layer shear
appears at least marginally supportive for the evolution of
supercell structures, and perhaps an upscale growing organized
cluster as inhibition continues to weaken in the peak late afternoon
heating. This may not be well handled by the convection allowing
model output, and the environment appears at least conditionally
supportive of large hail and increasing damaging potential.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-BqxJBjEuYQ7WqBDlxGvem3UK9ffAFkju2mBnsgym3TbItZfoeVCU0wGp4QvkUeOSJlua3B4j= XAg8U1sVIg5lKIC72w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 33329678 31549466 30479466 30439536 31299591 31579707
32349741 32839712 33329678=20


=3D =3D =3D
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