• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1218

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 23 17:48:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 231748
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231747=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1218
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

    Areas affected...central into southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent
    northern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

    Valid 231747Z - 231945Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Although the organized cluster of thunderstorms may now be
    in the process of weakening, a swath of strong to severe wind gusts
    may persist another couple of hours across and east-southeast of the
    Oklahoma City Metropolitan area.

    DISCUSSION...Based on recent warming of cloud tops and diminishing
    lightning flash rates, convection near the MCV is beginning to
    weaken. However, initially strong rear inflow focused to the south
    of this feature, now spreading across and east-southeast of the
    Oklahoma City Metro, may continue to be accompanied by potentially
    damaging surface gusts another hour or two before diminishing.

    Strongest convection is now focused on the southern flank of the
    convection system, within a lingering zone of forced ascent
    associated with warm advection. Some risk for hail, and more
    localized strong gusts, may persist with this activity, south of the
    Oklahoma City Metro into the eastern Oklahoma Red River vicinity
    through 19-20Z. However, there are indications that strengthening
    mid-level inhibition associated with warming and building ridging
    aloft may be in the process of suppressing convection, and it is
    possible that new severe weather watch may not be needed.

    ..Kerr.. 06/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5doBDiHh7HYnl3k8X72bNxAQFJq2zlpVAc7Zh3PFkdg0inVca1m9hFlQtb7fo76tAwikC2s-J= 26ufoQ8TMN36ybkAHE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35589719 35629647 35309524 34899515 33789560 33869639
    34229737 34749758 35229740 35589719=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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