ACUS11 KWNS 230641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230641=20
NMZ000-230845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230641Z - 230845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and/or
damaging gusts are possible across northeast New Mexico for the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...Another round of thunderstorms has developed east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, supported by warm-air advection
fostered by a modest southeasterly low-level jet extending into the
region. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place over the region,
suggesting that an additional round of storms could develop in the
wake of the ongoing storms. A slightly stronger corridor of
mid-level flow extends across northern NM and southern CO,
supporting a belt of 50 to 60 kt of effective bulk shear across
northeast NM. The resulting combination of shear and buoyancy will
support robust and supercell structures. Hail will be the primary
risk, but a strong downburst is also possible. Generally isolated
nature of the severe threat will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Ch8P-iEDDn9CUSATxEI22k17knqqEMDPw__9hlKqqsdIOvjOCWKbc-8N9v5fRB8scJPpgMic= 5BVWw9TMGcoMWzaxWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36220531 36680493 36800443 36710375 36350351 35700358
35240432 35410529 36220531=20


=3D =3D =3D
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