ACUS11 KWNS 221951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221951=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...the eastern Texas Panhandle and western/southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221951Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms could still further
intensify and organize, posing increasing potential for strong
surface gusts across the eastern Texas Panhandle through
western/southwestern Oklahoma late this afternoon. Although it is
not yet clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, due to
lingering uncertainties, trends will continue to be monitored for
this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection (around 700 mb),
focused within the thermal gradient along the periphery of warm and
more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, has supported
persistent convective development within an evolving cluster across
the Oklahoma into Texas Panhandle vicinity. Based on MRMS data,
stronger cells have been occasionally producing severe hail. More
recently stronger outflow surface gusts have been observed near and
southwest of Perryton, TX.

With at least a core of colder cloud tops and higher lightning flash
rates being maintained across the northeastern Texas Panhandle,
north/east of Pampa into areas near/west and south of Gage, OK,
further strengthening of the associated surface cold pool could
provide support for intensifying new thunderstorm development during
the next few hours. It appears that a forward (southeastward)
propagating segment of the outflow will begin to encounter an
increasingly unstable boundary-layer characterized by moderately
large CAPE, in the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, as
mid-level inhibition continues to weaken.

Although this is embedded within a generally weak westerly mean
environmental flow, with modest shear, the environment may be
conducive to the gradual evolution of a substantive mesoscale
convective vortex, accompanied by strengthening rear inflow and a
further increase in potential for potentially damaging wind gusts .

..Kerr/Hart.. 06/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!56Q9LUJhNS6H7lnm7SAOccs8qMJDa79B19Ds1JTUi7ASqbUP-KHoYkokDk2K0bnkex4RCyc3h= BiLt8SarlVjgqsuMRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36239958 35739891 34669712 33979839 34460027 35610076
35790003 36239958=20


=3D =3D =3D
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