ACUS11 KWNS 221751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221750=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-222015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico and
adjacent portions of the western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221750Z - 222015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly
likely through 2-4 PM MDT. These may pose a risk for large hail and
locally strong downbursts initially, with a supercell or two
evolving and posing at least some risk for a tornado later this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Insolation within a seasonably moist easterly upslope
flow into the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Mesa vicinity is contributing to moderately large CAPE, in the
presence of modestly steep lapse rates. Mid-level inhibition is
gradually weakening, and deepening convection is already ongoing
near the higher terrain. While one subtle short wave perturbation
is progressing off to the east, through the Panhandle vicinity, an
upstream perturbation may contribute to increasing large-scale
ascent within the next few hours.

Deep-layer westerly mean flow is weak (on the order of 15 kt), due
to pronounced veering of wind fields with height, so eastward
advection of intensifying storms off the higher terrain through late
afternoon will be slow. However, vertical shear appears sufficient
for supercells, which should tend to propagate southeastward.=20
Strongest storms may eventually focus along a remnant convective
outflow boundary south of the Raton Mesa, into the Texas Panhandle
south of Dalhart, accompanied by increasing risk for large hail,
locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

..Kerr/Hart.. 06/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-QdL4pS7FMeFFH8MuEJ66YrVHMEYU0-HHiHDHrstKbiKyFVqu0yBckykOT73YImiyMZv15o5d= 8kfl3FB4ihgdG5cA5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37220491 36950358 36300254 34840316 35450518 36250506
37220491=20


=3D =3D =3D
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