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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1204

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 22 08:35:35 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 220835
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220834=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-221030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1204
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

    Areas affected...southeast Colorado...far southwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357...

    Valid 220834Z - 221030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail remain possible
    tonight over southeast Colorado. At least low-end severe potential
    may affect parts of southwest Kansas late.

    DISCUSSION...Storms over southeast CO have congealed into a small
    MCS, with a persistent and discrete supercell on the southern end.
    Damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat, with hail in the
    more discrete storms. The substantial outflow being produced,
    coupled with moist easterly storm-relative flow, suggest the severe
    threat will be maintained for at least through watch expiration at
    10Z. With time, these storms will move away from the stronger
    instability, and interact with a zone of neutral to negative
    low-level theta-e advection. As such, severe-storm coverage may thin
    with time, favoring southern areas. At least locally severe gusts or
    marginal hail may still occur late tonight into far southwest
    KS/east of WW 357 with storms riding along the aforementioned
    gradient, but additional watches are not expected at this time.

    ..Jewell.. 06/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kbbBRVhCQpa7dwcHiSjAd4CLU10TcCGEnxpucV2xIB_eZq06gYyZ032pR4GVnh1wGdS8eH9U= ffHNqMIRxQWO-dTSZ0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37780408 37950406 38500384 38750361 38910337 39010294
    38050130 37440127 37040164 37020267 37240308 37780408=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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