ACUS11 KWNS 212249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212248=20
TXZ000-220045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Texas...including
parts of the Hill Country region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212248Z - 220045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
is increasing across parts of central and southern Texas. New WW
issuance may be needed in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a broad area with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s, across the Texas Hill Country region and adjacent areas.=20
This is supporting an extremely unstable environment, with
mixed-layer CAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range across a broad area.

Radar loop shows storms moving out of the Concho Valley and Edwards
Plateau area toward the Hill Country, with some upscale
growth/linear organization evident over the past half hour.

CAM guidance remains very inconsistent/untrustworthy -- both between
the various runs as well as over time within HRRR runs over the past
several hours. With that said, given the degree of CAPE evident,
and with this area on the western fringe of enhanced mid-level north-northwesterly flow aloft, expect storm coverage to continue
increasing, with organization into an MCS possible. New WW issuance
may be needed, east and southeast of the evolving convection.

..Goss/Thompson.. 06/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4x2Q2niQJaUdxdMRUdXijw52ut0TxRO_w4cJVkM26lXLOXhrre5Ioh72efKXwLNmlOnyYnKcI= 4wNRowA0lmuuKCT14M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29809947 30289897 30889888 31439844 31569756 30599627
29619639 28699747 28679861 29809947=20


=3D =3D =3D
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