ACUS11 KWNS 212049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212049=20
COZ000-WYZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into north-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349...

Valid 212049Z - 212215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 349. Large hail is the main risk with the stronger storms,
though a severe gust is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along the immediate
lee of the Rockies, with MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicting
deepening cores. Surface dewpoints near 70F are pooling along the
lee of the Rockies, promoting ample buoyancy for severe-hail
producing storms over the next few hours. Given relatively straight,
elongated hodographs associated with the higher buoyancy, 2+ inch
diameter hail is possible. Furthermore, 20Z mesoanalysis depict 0-3
km lapse rates that are at least 8.5 C/km, which may support a
couple of severe gusts with any storms that become outflow dominant,
especially since low-level shear is relatively weak.

..Squitieri.. 06/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7v5KYAUXxiAS8fEGXMCuA9u-fk1x0aD8PhsobztetRN4ppLapdiuPxXrdvM6SoazddTUfLu8y= U6sNtULh-AJRd_twGY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38930493 39860561 40760611 41020579 40800538 40360489
39650422 39210387 38970378 38820448 38930493=20


=3D =3D =3D
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