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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1183

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 21 01:40:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 210140
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210140=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-210345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1183
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0840 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

    Areas affected...Central Dakotas...Northern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...345...

    Valid 210140Z - 210345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344, 345
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for several more
    hours from the central Dakotas southward into far northern Nebraska.
    Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a north-to-south quasi-stationary front located across the central Dakotas. MLCAPE
    along this corridor is from 2000 to 4000 J/kg according the RAP. One
    area of storms is located near a maximum in instability across
    north-central North Dakota, with a second located in southern South
    Dakota near another instability max. Water vapor imagery shows a
    shortwave trough over the central High Plains. As this feature
    approaches from the southwest, large-scale ascent will continue to
    be favorable for convective development. The HRRR suggests that the
    greatest convective coverage will be across central South Dakota
    over the next few hours. In addition to the instability, 0-6 km
    shear along and near the front is near 45 knots with 700-500 mb
    lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for
    supercells with large hail. Wind damage will also be likely with
    supercells and short line segments.

    ..Broyles.. 06/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ACopA4oyV585a4zaR7v6whs9He94jpaV5-xjkqqGY92idrfjDqKa1jmTnkSP1iF7DGmKDQ9E= 2PLHwE0o9VY5Tr-i4k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 48979882 48999944 48530012 47900093 47380160 46550205
    44940151 43290164 42690154 42410124 42400075 42780042
    44340032 45810046 46890003 48489870 48979882=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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