ACUS11 KWNS 210015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210015=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern CO...southwestern NE...and far
northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 210015Z - 210145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and
locally severe gusts are possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from GLD shows isolated thunderstorm
development along a north/south-oriented boundary in northeastern
Colorado this evening. Moist/easterly upslope flow beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates along/east of the boundary are contributing to
moderate surface-based instability for this activity. Given
generally weak large-scale ascent and 30-35 kt effective shear
oriented off the boundary, a couple semi-discrete supercell
structures capable of large hail and locally severe gusts cannot be
ruled out initially. Additionally, incipient updrafts that maintain
sufficient residence time along the boundary could produce a
landspout given a well-mixed and moist boundary layer. Confidence in
storm longevity and overall coverage is low, and a watch is not
expected at this time.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4D89HNgKVAyrts-8D5SF3A3HhZpdgUKVUiXGHl--uto5oxIsY1RDKtpe3Sud6QD_x-_4nO4n5= t0RkV1fTyaTgLl-MLE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39890284 40300295 40620293 41050279 41260242 41260197
41160161 40900131 40570125 39770142 39420203 39430254
39890284=20


=3D =3D =3D
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