ACUS11 KWNS 202330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202329=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Central and Northeast Wyoming...Far Southeast
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 202329Z - 210030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue over the next
couple of hours from central Wyoming to far southeast Montana.
Isolated large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible.
Weather watch issuance remains possible across the region this
evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Cheyenne,
Wyoming shows a small cluster of storms across central Wyoming. The
storms are located near a southwest-to-northeast quasi-stationary
front where low-level convergence is maximized. Near the boundary,
surface temperatures are around 80 F and dewpoints are in the mid
50s F. This is contributing to a maximum in instability with MLCAPE
estimated near 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings across
central Wyoming early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 55 knots
with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 9.0 C/km. This should support the
continued development of isolated supercells with large hail. In
addition, a wind-damage threat may also develop, aided by large temperature-dewpoint spreads.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4oBdiFOadaI2WodXQ4iVLlaw5MjGsJf_hTiBvhN7gJJ7AYkAxJchKjcLMFbKZrgc99nnoNk3x= KSEg00J-Uj5BcNTdx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44910656 45740589 46090543 46170501 46040447 45850426
45580424 45120451 44520504 43140620 42640696 42710758
43050790 43580768 44910656=20


=3D =3D =3D
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