ACUS11 KWNS 202043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202043=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-202315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Texas and western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 202043Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorm development is possible
through 5-7 PM CDT. It remains unclear how long any storms that do
develop will persist, but they may pose at least a short-lived risk
for very large hail and strong downbursts. It does not currently
appear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at new thunderstorm development are ongoing near/east-southeast of Longview, TX. This may be supported by
forcing for ascent within a focused area of weak low-level warm
advection, in the wake of a subtle short wave impulse now digging
across Louisiana coastal areas.

Due to substantial lingering inhibition associated with warm and dry
elevated mixed-layer air, it remains unclear if this convection will
be sustained, particularly based on recent model output. However,
seasonably moist boundary-layer inflow into the south-southeastward
propagating convection appears characterized by very large CAPE.=20
And deep-layer shear beneath moderate northwesterly mid-level flow
(on the order of 30 kt) may be marginally sufficient to support
supercell structures.=20=20

So, there appears at least some potential for isolated rapid
thunderstorm development and intensification during the next few
hours. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by a risk
for very large hail and occasional strong downbursts as long as it
it maintained.

..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!75BR9PNm5xDbxBo3BLpZVQBtoLSH3Ku8zZw5uNpByc0udqvOXvW1EqAaY3dMi60T-XKTfEGeX= pdZuBRCAH1dK7C5Cqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32509427 32399408 31739327 30979343 30869387 31029428
32179455 32529452 32509427=20


=3D =3D =3D
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