ACUS11 KWNS 201238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201237=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-201530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201237Z - 201530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Highly elevated convection over northeast Texas may
eventually increase in coverage and intensify, with hail or locally
severe gusts by late morning.

DISCUSSION...An area of midlevel convection continues to increase
over northeast TX, in a zone of warm advection above 700 mb. Early
readings on cell motions are toward southeast at around 30 kt,
suggesting they are rooted above 600 mb. Indeed, the 12Z FWD
sounding shows northwesterly 30 kt winds at 575 mb, along with moist
midlevel profiles and steep lapse rates. Notably, parcels lifted
anywhere from 500 mb to the surface are all unstable. The most
unstable CAPE is associated with mid 70s F boundary-layer dewpoints,
although capped.

One possible scenario is that the increasing midlevel convection may
eventually result in cooling of the atmosphere above the surface,
potentially aiding in CIN reduction in concert with the daytime
diurnal cycle. These factors could allow the ongoing activity to
couple with the boundary-layer moisture, with an eventual threat of
hail or locally damaging gusts from increasingly surface-based
storms.

The area will need to be monitored closely this morning for signs of
increasing storm coverage and intensification.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Yn9O0hR5O6k5GTLmTU1X_MHBfyQJk--o1EIMIDkey_7mTCeS7R6zv76qsm4E1VnUtc_FUaMj= 86RPYIOe3M_UEepoQ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31429387 31169462 31379527 31969568 32729602 33499638
33689614 33429519 32559356 31889356 31429387=20


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