ACUS11 KWNS 192203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192203=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192203Z - 200000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds would be possible should
storms develop westward into southeastern Louisiana. A watch is not
certain at this time, but convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus near Lake Pontchartrain have steadily become
more vertically developed late this afternoon. Forcing for ascent
remains rather weak with minimal surface convergence and the upper
low farther to the northeast. However, temperatures near 100 F and
dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s F is supportive of minimal MLCIN.
Development along westward-moving outflow from southern
Alabama/Mississippi may provide a trigger for additional storm
development into southeastern Louisiana. Very large buoyancy and
enhanced mid-level northwesterly flow around the upper low (25-35
kts of effective shear) would mean organized supercell structures
would be possible. Large hail up to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts
would be the main threats. Low-level shear is sufficient for weak
low-level rotation (per KLIX VAD). The strongest discrete storms
could produce a brief tornado. There is some uncertainty how many
storms and how far west development will occur. A watch is possible
should convective trends warrant.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8y8SWgxS2b2xkXi6vkCrMvAhnhr1zdOwAYRpL8PUdY1h1vMcl5QkxBMF-9PktMeF9Pw7TzbdI= Of3f2yocp5sj9scGkg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

LAT...LON 29769005 30159120 30699135 30809116 30839069 30778990
30608922 30118888 29608922 29769005=20


=3D =3D =3D
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