ACUS11 KWNS 192052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192051=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-192315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Montana into far northeast
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192051Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
northern High Plains. Severe winds and hail are the greatest threats
with any of the stronger storms that develop. An organized
convective cluster may ultimately materialize and a WW issuance may
become necessary at some point this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Several hours of clearing skies have supported surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s F amid upper 40s to 50s F
dewpoints, resulting in 2000+ J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE given the presence
of 7-8 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates. Cumulus are increasing
in depth and coverage across northeast WY, likely driven by the
strong surface heating. However, the approach of the mid-level
trough will result in increasing deep-layer ascent and stronger flow
aloft, which will also support 60+ kts of effective bulk
shear/elongated hodographs. As storms develop, cellular modes are
possible, with a mix of severe hail/gusts the hazards of concern.
However, as potential upscale growth of an MCS occurs later this
afternoon or early evening, severe winds will become the prevalent
threat.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NzyjLfzy9Hi_8z6snweumHDe5wl_jgaIejBUbAoDFSo5iQSdhVTzSTjypdVhBS9tfN-iAOol= rOZyOUe2bq1nCVWq0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 44830940 46360734 47190573 47520432 46950344 46150319
45340368 44920436 44680518 44470625 44090753 44130847
44830940=20


=3D =3D =3D
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