ACUS11 KWNS 191933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191933=20
TXZ000-192030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191933Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms is increasing across
portions of central TX. Severe gusts/hail are the primary threats
with the strongest storms that manage to develop.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed for strong surface heating,
with temperatures exceeding 100 F in spots. Surface dewpoints
remaining in the 70s F supports a highly unstable airmass, that
combined with 9 C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates, is contributing to
over 5000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic
radar data shows convective initiation already underway. Since veering/strengthening winds with height are contributing to
elongated hodographs/35-45 kts of effective bulk shear, any storms
that develop should rapidly become supercells with the potential to
produce large hail (perhaps some stones exceeding 2 inches in
diameter) along with severe gusts. An upgrade to Slight Risk is in
progress and the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is being
considered.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jyPjTbtPQf9YK2E5l_LaddnWLViw9yRa9cZtr7LSSxvtjrPUAnRE_61UgtitPeNoLXXA0MnN= L_rFNTWY46Sv_tsAhc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30460060 31100036 32199984 32219977 32499899 32239829
31519793 31099772 30599767 29789834 29459889 29229951
29540016 30460060=20


=3D =3D =3D
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