ACUS11 KWNS 191835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191835=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-192030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Alabama....southeastern
Mississippi and adjacent portions of southeastern Louisiana and the
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191835Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development
remains possible through the remainder of the afternoon, with
perhaps at least some increase in coverage. Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of a remnant MCV migrating into
southeastern Georgia coastal areas, the Rapid Refresh suggests that
modest (30+ kt) west-southwesterly flow around 850 mb will gradually
weaken across the southeastern Louisiana into southern
Alabama/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late afternoon. However,
seasonably strong (30-40 kt) northwesterly flow lingers in the
700-500 mb layer across this region, on the southwesterly periphery
of a broad mid-level low centered over the Ohio Valley.

Beneath this regime, a seasonably moist boundary-layer is becoming characterized by large mixed-layer CAPE (2000-4000 J/kg) in the the
presence of modestly steep lapse rates. This is focused along and
south of a weak front/zone of strengthening differential surface
heating, south of I-20 across Mississippi through the Meridian
MS/Montgomery AL vicinities, and west/northwest of a remnant outflow
boundary near the Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast.

Thunderstorm initiation is already well underway along the boundary
near the Montgomery area, with scattered additional new thunderstorm development perhaps beginning to initiate west-southwestward into
Mississippi, and perhaps near the sea-breeze/outflow boundary across
southern Mississippi into southeastern Louisiana. As a weak short
wave perturbation (evident in water vapor imagery digging across the
lower Mississippi Valley) continues southeastward this afternoon,
this may provide support for further development and/or upscale
growth. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially,
posing a risk for large hail and some continuing risk for a tornado
(mainly near coastal area), before strong wind gusts become the more
prominent potential hazard later this afternoon.

..Kerr/Hart.. 06/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4N-T86fm6vSAfwVViXqrEZV5JCWdsu_TN2HZqQNOBwxvLBPGj8vIKyL1YstU5NxtFmDBVqtUQ= F9744Iw_tUbKM3ygUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32128940 32168823 32498681 31328608 31028790 30458831
29708715 29568823 29828990 30598975 31218942 32128940=20


=3D =3D =3D
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