ACUS11 KWNS 191436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191436=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-191630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Florida and southeastern
Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

Valid 191436Z - 191630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
continues.

SUMMARY...A weakening cluster of thunderstorms could briefly
intensify again and pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts
while spreading into and through southeastern Georgia coastal areas
and northern Florida through Noon-1 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Based on diminishing lightning flash rates, recent
cloud top warming and radar presentation, the southeastward
advancing convective system has been in the process of decaying.=20
Observed peak gusts at several ASOS sites (Quincy, FL/Thomasville
and Moultri, GA) have been around 30 kt with the passage of the
convective outflow, as convection has been traversing boundary-layer
air likely stabilized by prior convection.

VWP data does indicate 50 kt rear inflow as low as 1 KM AGL, and the
leading line has been forward propagating around 40 kt, likely
maintaining strong southeasterly near-surface inflow into updrafts.=20
So, some brief intensification might still be possible as the gust
front encounters a more moist and potentially unstable boundary
layer across the Ocala, Gainesville and Jacksonville areas through
16-17Z.

..Kerr.. 06/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6phf_kiWhuj01QYdgFEm4g7tx2Pmd_VPEHdH6o41ZjuIgA9kx87t6ZnHt9luAzvAKbhApZMkV= HCBAyXtIFsLVi8RWo8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30408391 30388329 31378248 31728209 31288117 30108162
29498229 29598364 29698411 30408391=20


=3D =3D =3D
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