ACUS11 KWNS 191205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191205=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-191400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi...far southwest Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 338...

Valid 191205Z - 191400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 338 continues.

SUMMARY...A small area of supercell potential currently exists from
southern Mississippi into a small part of southwest Alabama. A brief
tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary currently extends westward out of
southern AL and into far southeast MS, where it has likely stalled.
Meanwhile, a very moist and unstable air mass remains to the west,
with upper 70s F dewpoints minimizing CIN.

Westerly flow in the boundary layer has maintained theta-e advection
into this area where low-level convergence is concentrated. A
supercell currently exists in Jones County, MS, and other storms
were beginning to form farther south.

SRH is concentrated mostly in the lowest 1 km, with values of 150 to
200 m2/s2 common, especially near the outflow boundary. It is
possible that any storms interacting with this favorable shear zone
could produce a brief tornado. As such, the tornado watch has been
expanded south to account for the motion of the aforementioned cells
and new development.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!55fAfAguOC4CrgzvWT4CBqUNmWxAGfVZKiuPfPK1mbePkE3K3cdCzgJr_ETKOKfn4k1ONG3mb= AYRcvbKyg0Bz0wdKwc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31668935 31678899 31498857 31308811 31208804 30948803
30658823 30618846 30788919 31438945 31538950 31668935=20


=3D =3D =3D
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