ACUS11 KWNS 182231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182231=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas...Far Southwest
Tennessee...Northwest and North-central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 182231Z - 190030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase across northeastern Arkansas and may impact areas further south across
eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, especially as convective
initiation becomes more likely. Weather watch issuance will be
likely over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
trough over the Ozarks. At the surface, a moist airmass is located
across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The RAP has
moderate instability across southeastern Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi with weaker instability further north into northeast
Arkansas and western Tennessee. A severe threat has recently
developed in far northeast Arkansas, near a mid-level vorticity max
associated with the upper-level trough. The severe threat will
likely continue as storms gradually intensify southward across
northeast Arkansas. As the vorticity max moves east-southeastward,
additional convective initiation is expected from east-central
Arkansas eastward across northwest Mississippi. The moderate
instability, strong deep-layer shear and strengthening low-level
shear will make supercell development possible later this evening.
Large hail and wind damage will initially be possible, but an
tornado threat may also eventually develop especially across
northern Mississippi.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-sRXMC7iSGyC1GXJt65dVPl6airKwZjsW7qYD4vU90xBZgGPG8JQQt-EHt14O9yuxdm8pV6dn= PTijRDuH8a0fqtbdCk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33558956 33399068 33429124 33569188 33859205 34559186
35879103 36209021 36028953 35638907 35258878 34618874
33978904 33558956=20


=3D =3D =3D
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