ACUS11 KWNS 182226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182226=20
TXZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of central TX through the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182226Z - 190030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of central TX and the Edwards Plateau later this
afternoon and evening. WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection initiation attempts are underway along a quasi-stationary front draped from northeast TX southwestward
through the Edwards Plateau. The deepest Cu thus far reside in an
environment characterized by triple-digit surface temperatures and
dewpoints in the 60s. Associated cloud bases are around 3 km AGL
with around 3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE. RAP analyses suggest rather
straight shear profiles throughout the troposphere with over 40 kts
of 0-6-km shear. These conditions are not expected to change much
for the rest of the day as the front remains mostly stationary
through the region and primarily zonal mid-level flow shifts
eastward. Recent high-resolution guidance in this region is mixed;
some CAMs depicting successful initiation and maturation for a few
hours thereafter, and others show no initiation. Successful
initiation will likely depend on the width of developing updrafts
and their resistance to relatively dry air near the top of the
boundary layer. Current satellite trends suggest that successful
initiation and subsequent maturation is possible, with the main
conditional threats being large hail and damaging wind gusts lasting
for a couple of hours. Trends will continue to be monitored for
possible WW issuance, although it appears unlikely at this time
given uncertainties regarding initiation and subsequent coverage.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5QFYsFQgeQmt_ISGfAjn5UnaERS4CV5iZpn40p5TSFyW6URZaA6CEQojBUeabRWxSjMrrM99T= N2-hJnMAvF-5J4k10o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29899803 29469911 29319994 29540051 29940070 30260051
30839985 31039956 31499873 31699817 31529765 31049737
30449749 29899803=20


=3D =3D =3D
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