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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1155

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 18 21:55:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 182155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182154=20
    FLZ000-190000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1155
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

    Areas affected...the central FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 182154Z - 190000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible for the next
    couple hours across the central FL Peninsula. Localized wind gusts
    and small hail would be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated cumulonimbi have developed across the central
    FL Peninsula within a diurnally driven cumulus field. These updrafts
    are percolating in an environment characterized by around 3000 J/kg
    MLCAPE and 15 kts of bulk shear. This environment combined with
    rather weak upper-level forcing has yielded transient initiation
    attempts thus far (e.g., Marion County). Forcing and bulk shear
    should gradually increase throughout the afternoon as the main area
    of mid-level flow overspreads the region. However, general
    tropospheric flow is expected to remain around 30 kts or lower. This
    should limit any severe hazards to areas with stronger localized
    forcing, such as along storm-scale outflow boundaries or sea
    breezes. If locally stronger updrafts develop, isolated damaging
    wind gusts and small hail should be the primary threats.

    ..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!77sx2yL7OYCz5wFeNi9Ugtzw2E6eQYS0hfkXhDZMfyFrNE1zFl-ggGSnOWn_i4Zp_NHNHAHrx= Yli3Otl9jJBWZ1_ob0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 27148228 28158252 29328244 29718201 29678145 29178105
    28298066 27498031 26878003 26218008 25918043 25848112
    25968172 26548209 27148228=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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