ACUS11 KWNS 182045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182045=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana into far
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182045Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing near the Gulf Coast,
with large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes
possible with any of the stronger storms that can develop. A WW
issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field across southern LA into far southern MS
has recently become agitated given several hours of boundary-layer modification. Rich low-level moisture is being overspread by steep
mid-level lapse rates, supporting 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE. 50-60 kts
of effective bulk shear coincides this strong buoyancy, and backed southeasterly surface winds, with veering/strengthening with height,
support sizeable curved/elongated hodographs (as shown by the latest
LIX VAD data). As such, the environment supports supercell
development, with large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes all
possible. An outflow boundary associated with a decaying MCS is
drifting westward along the MS coastline, which may serve as a
source for convective initiation soon. As such, trends are being
monitored closely for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72VDDso8vjTz9ml-9iQ5lSuPfKg48OsVNRk2a_Nc4nnHEROBSeFmxTjTPQRBZhizIUSfbuM7D= Z04sgK9R2_2kucypo0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32019153 31989027 31758958 31328902 30958893 30718917
30638977 30829056 31049115 31329158 32019153=20


=3D =3D =3D
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