ACUS11 KWNS 182013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182012=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Texas into northwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182012Z - 182145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for the possibility of
thunderstorm development over the next few hours. The severe threat
is highly conditional on storm development. Should storms develop,
severe hail/wind will be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Insolation following earlier storms has allowed for
ample surface heating and associated modification of the boundary
layer around/just south of the Arklatex. Some slightly agitated
cumulus have recently become apparent ahead of a southward sagging
boundary, which also intersects another outflow boundary left behind
by earlier storms. Surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid 75+ F
dewpoints, overspread by 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, is
contributing up to 4500 J/kg MLCAPE. While some billow clouds are
evident via visible satellite, the agitation of cumulus also
suggests that remaining convective inhibition/boundary-layer
stabilization continues to erode. The presence of a 30 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, overspread by 50+ kts of
west-northwesterly 500 mb flow, is also supporting modestly curved,
elongated hodographs bearing 50+ kts of effective bulk shear across
the warm sector. As such, supercells would likely be the primary
mode of convection, with any storm mergers supporting
southeastward-propagating bow-echo MCSs.

The ambient environment clearly supports the potential for
significant severe storms, including very large hail and perhaps a
tornado with supercells, and severe gusts with bowing structures.
However, relatively neutral height falls introduces uncertainty of
convective initiation, with high-resolution model guidance
demonstrating little consensus for a given solution. Nonetheless,
convective trends will continue to be monitored and a WW issuance
may be needed if clearer signals of thunderstorm development become
apparent.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9A0HsY5MWb0V1I7gbSnVjCB8A49cHhpkCA5YkXVWcwH9IIL5qBkULKb2zGx-dmO4SyzYknRdA= HB5ApDdlRFwpYK2gCM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31589669 31929710 32419717 33169639 33749525 33889444
33709410 33349387 32769367 32069358 31749378 31529432
31369515 31319577 31369619 31589669=20


=3D =3D =3D
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