ACUS11 KWNS 181633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181632=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-181830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...Southeast MS into southwest AL and the western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333...

Valid 181632Z - 181830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and locally damaging gusts
may persist into the afternoon. The need for downstream watch
issuance is uncertain, though local extension may need to be
considered for WW 333, depending on intensity trends.

DISCUSSION...At 1615 UTC, a small bowing segment has recently
intensified and is moving into the western FL Panhandle, with
additional development noted along a confluence zone near the
immediate Gulf Coast. A 51 kt gust was recently observed near
Milton, FL, and favorable buoyancy downstream may support a
damaging-wind threat persisting into at least early afternoon across
the FL Panhandle, though decreasing deep-layer shear with eastward
extent may eventually tend to limit storm organization with time.=20

Farther northwest, a storm cluster has recently reintensified across east-central/southeast MS. While a persistent feed of steep midlevel
lapse rates may sustain this cluster into the early afternoon, storm
intensity may diminish as the cluster follows in the immediate wake
of extensive convection across south AL.=20

While some severe threat may eventually spread downstream of WW 333,
the need for new watch issuance is uncertain, with the longevity of
the northern cluster in question, while the southern cluster will
eventually move offshore. However, local extension of WW 333 may be
required to cover the short-term threat, and the need for downstream
watch issuance will be reevaluated based on short-term observational
trends.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_f0Dr7I7ZyFLKvN4Y7q1qjf6ReWPKyqDo-4egLKSED2Lr2H4k_oE8OVTRZ5UsNeBtGnE6q7X5= 4i8z19VogS_2wbaJks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32428936 32338853 32218832 31118681 30678583 29938495
29558495 29568545 29828628 30098779 30188843 30468876
31048911 31828945 32428936=20


=3D =3D =3D
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