ACUS11 KWNS 180702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180701=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...much of Arkansas...southern Missouri...northwest
Mississippi and far western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331...

Valid 180701Z - 180900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and sporadic hail may spread
east of WW 331, tonight, and a new watch may be needed soon
downstream.

DISCUSSION...The bow echo that moved through the Tulsa OK area
earlier has weakened as it encounters a more stable air mass. Aside
from gradually decreasing instability northeastward into MO, this is
due in part to outflow spreading north out of a large complex of
storms now moving east across southern AR. Still, a few strong gusts
may occur there.

Farther south, instability increases into central AR and northwest
MS, where objective analysis indicates an MLCAPE gradient. A special
06Z sounding from LZK shows steep midlevel lapse rates remain in
place ahead of a complex of storms, with ample instability for a
continued severe-wind threat. In addition, hodographs are relatively
straight and long, and will support both storm longevity as they
move east/southeast, and, hail potential with the more cellular
modes.

..Jewell.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Zryk_wJqClscQxTZ4dDNkBB9yASCRWIxuLwJF_DRuycKmYaPmjL0iC4C9pvy6_dqm_vDUnuX= Aj0vwVZPmp5VxnnvaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 37139190 35949068 35098999 34038997 33548996 32999044
33059187 33549362 33769366 34229356 35009365 35819401
36499448 36899482 37339506 37469486 37659419 37439276
37139190=20


=3D =3D =3D
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