ACUS11 KWNS 180128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180128=20
KSZ000-180330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

Valid 180128Z - 180330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and hail continues across
WW328.

DISCUSSION...Convection over southwest KS has grown upscale into a
QLCS with a well-defined cold pool. Temperature deficits are roughly
20 F based on current surface observations. Numerous mesovortices
have developed along the gust front in the last hour or so, the
strongest of which passed very near KDDC around 01z. The 00z DDC
observed profile featured an uncapped environment with around 2200
J/kg of MLCAPE, a deep moist layer up to around 2300 m AGL, and
around 24 kts of 0-3-km shear with negligible lower-layer SRH.
Substantial modification occurred in the following hour,
particularly near the ground. VAD profiles just prior to the
system's arrival exhibited similar 0-3-km shear values (around 20-25
kts) with stronger low-layer shear and SRH (around 15 kts and 100
J/kg from 0-1 km AGL, respectively). These characteristics are
consistent with an environment supportive of repeated
mesocyclogenesis along the leading edge of QLCSs. The environment is
expected to remain supportive of stronger updrafts and mesovortex
generation within the line. These areas will continue to pose a
locally higher threat for damaging wind gusts and hail within the
broader, severe-wind-producing system. This threat is expected to
continue for the next couple of hours as the QLCS progresses
eastward through WW328 before encountering less bulk shear and
weakening overnight.

..Flournoy.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-q1rsbx67hfb2m8GcD6gCaDRDg9U-yUPgrkOa-63XDu6plP9XkfE0yMSmY56n1WSUA3uYgYjn= j3n8RsnRGhIknBXXYc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37390004 37910040 38560075 39230077 39490028 39509969
39079916 38279863 37739856 37369875 37239944 37390004=20


=3D =3D =3D
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