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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1139

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 18 00:16:12 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 180016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180015=20
    TXZ000-180215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1139
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0715 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 180015Z - 180215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
    portions of southwest TX in the next few hours. The primary threats
    with these storms would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Watch
    issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong thunderstorms have formed across the
    region -- particularly in Crockett County -- to the south of an
    ejecting upper-level wave. While stronger forcing resides farther
    north, 30-40 kts of mid-level flow is present across the highlighted
    area, yielding bulk shear sufficient for sustained updrafts.
    Continued storm maturation is uncertain due to quite high LCLs
    (around 2500 m per forecast soundings) and the aforementioned
    limited upper-level forcing. If storms are able to persist, they
    will move into an environment characterized by around 2000-2500 J/kg
    MLCAPE and bulk shear supportive of continued severe hazards.
    Current VAD profiles at KDFX and KSJT depict veering shear profiles
    with around 200 J/kg of effective SRH (assuming more mature,
    southeastward storm motions). Efficient ingestion of lower-level SRH
    into updrafts should be tempered by diurnal cooling, limiting any
    tornado threat, but damaging wind gusts and large hail would be
    possible with any mature storms within the next couple of hours.

    ..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7nRjpBzgY8HHMEsQN8-aWa9ZfYCmLyHhua_4AaGgysq8HD5K7IXZ3rAqS_iAxriewRUodQ_Oc= ntt5lXybHaU5BAhJYc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29630153 29670208 29660246 30340240 30890209 31240142
    31120015 30879891 30449850 29649869 29179998 29040086
    29390118 29630153=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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