ACUS11 KWNS 172253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172253=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...portions of Alabama and Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172253Z - 180100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible across
portions of Alabama and Georgia for the next few hours. Sporadic
wind gusts and small hail are possible, but the overall severe
threat is expected to be relatively low.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development has occurred across
portions of Alabama and Georgia, with the strongest storm having
traversed Bibb County in the last hour or so. These storms are
forming in a northwesterly flow regime and a broad baroclinic zone characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints in
the 60s F, increasing to near 70 F with southward extent. Sufficient upper-level flow amidst MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and negligible
inhibition has supported a few stronger, more sustained storms in
the area. The overall severe threat for these storms, and any that
continue to develop, is rather low given weak bulk shear to the
north of the mid-level jet. Some threat for severe hazards -- mainly
isolated damaging wind gusts and hail -- exists along the southern
periphery of the highlighted area (and into WW323), where any storms
that develop/persist may interact with a more sheared and unstable
airmass. However, ongoing convective trends suggest that the limited
shear where updrafts are currently percolating is leading to quick
outflow dominance and shorter storm lifetimes. As such, the overall
severe threat in this area should remain relatively low for the next
couple of hours and further diminish around sunset.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9sD6l6NWI1jwc72xV8CJuuw-UYFzBRcFsCFfgmzytvyL8_8PW0BsNNVPY1DFt7GpYF3vgeUAx= K21Y6cOkfFcpxCX9TQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON 32258693 32528788 33038813 33548781 33908709 33998644
33848525 33418367 32798288 32208266 31708259 31178269
31008307 31208410 31768555 32258693=20


=3D =3D =3D
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