ACUS11 KWNS 172213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172213=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-180015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...northern LA and the Ark-La-Tex region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172213Z - 180015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible
in the next few hours across northern LA and the Ark-La-Tex region.

DISCUSSION...Congested cumulus and isolated areas of deeper
convective development are currently observed across the Ark-La-Tex
region. A broad effective front is draped from west-northwest to
east-southeast through the area, with temperatures generally in the mid-/upper-90s and dewpoints around 80 degrees F. These conditions
are contributing to extreme instability with MLCAPE around
5500-6000+ J/kg. As a result, vigorous updraft development could
occur in the next hour or two, which could mature into at least
transient supercell structures given 45-55 kts of bulk shear. Should
this occur, a threat for damaging wind gusts and very large hail
would materialize. Such a scenario is captured in some recent
high-resolution guidance, but storm strength and lifetimes may be
stifled by an approaching mid-level ridge. Ongoing convective trends
will continue to be monitored during the next couple of hours.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8LRImdJwSvAnv0btfAFSnLh2CGzI_dyS74jdDIUfIST9J3wVpLgWNDsRitVa6sKz0_Cah_wr7= fKQ4p-hPsExNwLjazg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31209335 31609412 32099470 32599505 33079478 33299424
33229335 32939243 32649175 32179120 31559132 31019170
30969258 31209335=20


=3D =3D =3D
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