ACUS11 KWNS 172152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172151=20
TXZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Central and North Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...

Valid 172151Z - 172345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across the southeast
part of WW 325, and spread east and northeastward across
north-central Texas over the next few hours. As the storms approach
the edge of the watch, new watch issuance will become likely further
east across parts of north and central Texas.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D high-resolution radar from San
Angelo shows a cluster of supercells in north-central Texas. The
storms are located on the western edge of a broad moist sector.
Surface dewpoints across north and central Texas are mostly in the
lower to in 70s F, with the RAP analyzing strong instability (MLCAPE
from 4000 to 5000 J/kg). These storms are expected to develop east
and northeastward along a thermal axis where surface temperatures
are in the mid to upper 90s F near and to the south of the
Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth
has a supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are very steep, exceeding 9.0 C/km
across much of the area. The environment will be favorable for large
hail and wind damage, especially with supercells. As cell coverage
gradually expands, the wind-damage threat could increase, especially
if a cold pool can begin to organize.

..Broyles.. 06/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ugJONfiqsaatMUrVQ33rU8BY3NMnAPO9K6hWr3dvq17bXL0fhk9HgtOnznN5e9PlRnh0AFDM= F-BCwKKqF6YoHUvoJo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32249983 31569961 31429889 31549810 31949758 32709745
33669758 33969820 33839893 33549931 32929964 32249983=20


=3D =3D =3D
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