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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1129

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 17 20:52:08 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 172052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172051=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-172245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...Oklahoma
    Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma...portions of the eastern Texas
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 172051Z - 172245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
    dryline over the next 1 to 2 hours, with large to very large hail,
    damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possible. Trends will
    continue to be monitored and a watch is likely in the next 1 to 2
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorm development is likely to occur
    along a dryline that extends through the central Texas Panhandle
    north across the western OK Panhandle over the next couple of hours,
    within a moderate-strongly unstable environment and 50-60 kts of
    westerly deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail will be
    possible given very steep mid-level lapse rates and considerable
    CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer, and damaging gusts will also be
    possible. Some potential will exist for low-level rotation and a
    tornado or two as low-level hodographs become more favorable towards
    early evening. With time, storms are likely to merge into an
    eastward-moving MCS capable of all severe hazards and an increasing
    risk for significant severe wind gusts.=20

    Short-term trends will continue to be monitored and a watch will
    likely be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!41cxgpORxHDHo5zq34E5P496-spk6kW3wAMx-7XvBMFWBeEBYDdkVhqRt4xtaBLRAXSVQ4chW= YxdGVmI4pmJm2YqNC4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 34869874 34750020 34810105 35230128 35710144 36140210
    36560278 37100289 37580238 37830191 37860109 37760053
    37619996 37259937 36589894 35829864 34869874=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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