1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1124

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 17 18:08:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 171808
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171807=20
    COZ000-172000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1124
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...southeast Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 171807Z - 172000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to intensify over the
    next few hours and move east/southeast off of the higher terrain and
    across southeast Colorado. Damaging gusts and large to very large
    hail hail will be the primary threats, although a tornado will also
    be possible. A watch will be needed shortly.

    DISCUSSION...A focused region of large-scale ascent moving east
    across central CO will combine with moist southeasterly low-level
    flow and contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
    higher terrain west of Interstate 25 over the next 1-2 hours. These
    storms will move east/southeast across southeast CO where visible
    imagery suggests that convective inhibition continues to weaken.
    Continued daytime heating and lower 50s surface dewpoints will
    combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to result in moderate
    MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercell structures
    and line segments capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. More
    discrete supercells will be capable of very large hail (in excess of
    2 inches) given ample CAPE in the -10C to -30 layer. Damaging wind
    gusts will become more likely with time as linear structures evolve
    with eastward extent.=20

    Convective trends are being monitored and a watch will likely be
    needed shortly.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!743dloDuIDognjiHKIyKW6m41i5H0-Te9oeHVQWHEwHUUgXcrer4qYZTmStq8ak9iOSyd3MWu= CrsAjRtlwgC3Lr2fPw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37050354 37080401 37230474 37860480 38320477 38650452
    38750403 38740353 38650275 38460208 37780204 37470210
    37070227 37010281 37050354=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)