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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1122

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 17 15:04:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 171504
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171503=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-171700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1122
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1003 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...southern Mississippi...southeast
    Louisiana...southwest Alabama...western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 171503Z - 171700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeast
    across the discussion area through early/mid afternoon. Supercells
    capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts will be the
    primary severe weather risks.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing
    vertical development within a cumulus field in the vicinity of a
    nearly stationary front over southern MS at 1500z. Substantial
    diurnal heating of a very moist air mass will result in continued destabilization and negligible CINH, with MLCAPE in excess of 3500
    to 4000 J/kg by early afternoon. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of
    40-45 kts favors the development of supercell storm structures
    capable of large to isolated very large hail, and damaging gusts.=20
    Storm coverage should increase with time, and storm/boundary
    interactions may result in some potential for a tornado.

    Observational trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior
    to 17z.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4W29UDVbVJrSG3w3eC2CLVKmPdqzhDwJ7gyAklxA8sV_IG0DL3X16TKSlOTfPXKyV3F8r5-I4= rLMIjU0VVx59pplO50$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31279053 31929055 32149008 32228956 32168875 32088783
    31488638 30698593 30278633 30128729 30188905 30729021
    31279053=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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