ACUS11 KWNS 170031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170030=20
TXZ000-170230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 170030Z - 170230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk for large hail and
sporadic damaging winds along and west of I-35 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Along the I-35 corridor in central TX, several
supercells have matured east of dryline this evening. Driven
primarily by the diurnal dryline circulation and very warm surface
temperatures near 100 F, these storms should persist with a hail
risk this evening. Extreme buoyancy, 5000+ J/Kg of MLCAPE will
continue to support very strong updrafts, primarily along and west
of I-35, in central TX. An unseasonably strong EML with lapse rates
near 9 C/km and enhanced mid and upper-level flow will provide very
favorable conditions for large, but most likely melting hail with
the more persistent supercells. Isolated damaging winds are also
possible given relatively high LCLs and the degree of buoyancy. The
severe threat should continue this evening with the slow-moving
storms before nocturnal stabilization strengthens, and mesoscale
ascent associated with the dryline circulation retreats westward.

..Lyons.. 06/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Hy2hXomGtYfyZLUNvCJQXWxW4ninQPmNlFJR8sG6LApbuupivKZKVVj13J7iRJcEB_I8UV1L= V4qK9-ciLlhgsV2now$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29509829 29499880 29899952 31799764 31869677 31749639
31509631 31089680 30389743 29509829=20


=3D =3D =3D
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