ACUS11 KWNS 162335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162334=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...eastern MS and western/central AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320...

Valid 162334Z - 170100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320
continues.

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and damaging winds will remain
possible with several clusters of severe storms this evening across
WW320.

DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across WW320. Near the
MS/AL border, several supercells have continued to produce large to
occasional giant hail over the last couple of hours. Located near a
shortwave trough and along a baroclinic zone, 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 50+ kt of effective shear should continue to support
these storms as they move southeast. Large and occasional giant hail
will remain possible this evening given the large buoyancy and
supercell mode. Some upscale growth may also enhance the threat for
damaging winds later this evening.

Additional storm development across southern MS and AL was noted
with new storms initiating within a largely uncapped, but weakly
forced air mass. While the initial storm has dissipated, recent
reports of baseball sized hail and the latest HRRR guidance suggests
isolated supercells may emerge within a favorable environment for
significant hail. 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-55 kt is more than
adequate to support robust supercellular updrafts capable of large
hail and isolated damaging winds for several more hours this
evening.

..Lyons.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4z4OqOaUMxaLAHlbX1Nd0HjymwX0f554sOvGpAztSEjqC1moxKAF4cvXEfT7-HczTUHRDOG12= TISEY07lO_SxN41lWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31478958 33068931 33838915 34128855 33908786 33498738
33138714 32788704 31858704 31448717 31058726 30698758
30598792 30588824 30608862 30628896 31478958=20


=3D =3D =3D
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