ACUS11 KWNS 162135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162135=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...eastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi and
western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 162135Z - 162300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should
continue this afternoon/evening with a risk for large hail and
isolated damaging winds. Additional storms may move south from
northern MS this evening. A new weather watch is likely needed.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the lower MS Valley, afternoon
heating and subtle forcing for ascent ahead of a shortwave trough
has helped erode inhibition over portions of eastern LA and southern
MS. Deepening cumulus and incipient thunderstorms were noted
developing across the region. Very moist surface conditions with low
to mid 70s F dewpoints and moderate mid-level lapse rates near 7
C/km were aiding in the development of large buoyancy 3000+ J/kg of
MLCAPE. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft is also supportive of an
unusually strong wind profiles, with 50-60 kt of effective shear
observed on area VWPs. Robust organized updrafts with a
predominately supercellular mode are expected to continue to develop
this afternoon. Hail, some possibly 2+ in, is likely with
supercells, along with the potential for isolated damaging gusts.
Hi-res guidance is somewhat uncertain on storm coverage late this
afternoon and evening given relatively modest forcing for ascent.
However, additional development upstream may allow for some upscale
growth with a risk for damaging winds in the evening. Given the
favorable parameter space, a new weather watch is being considered
for portions of far eastern LA, southern MS and western AL.

..Lyons/Grams.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rCkSbRFumDwBF827beMnyKWvgaq6-y8gofTslRtZaBYIcrQRNCOOKcVWbpDDnp7CWdqbUMtU= -Mym-N7BXJAxW9HFII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30158820 30248824 30529036 31259060 32329094 33149099
33739002 33648873 33398827 32998785 32288759 31428741
30718760 30608762 30238777 30158820=20


=3D =3D =3D
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