ACUS11 KWNS 162013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162013=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of south-central Pennsylvania into extreme
eastern West Virginia...western Maryland and northern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162013Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail or damaging gusts may
accompany the stronger storms this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have increased in intensity under
and to the south of upper-low (positioned over central PA), where
adequate insolation has allowed for boundary layer destabilization.
0-3 km lapse rates are approaching 8 C/km in spots (as shown via 19Z mesoanalysis), which is fostering appreciable updraft development.
While mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor, 30+ kts of
effective bulk shear is likely supporting organized storm modes
(including a supercell entering Loudon County, VA with a history of
producing 1 inch diameter hail). A few additional bouts of large
hail or damaging gusts may occur this afternoon. However, the severe
threat should remain isolated.

..Squitieri.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dgr9aUlo2SY7Ue5z6YTyKjTPN54kOqXrdSGPybmzNNjLEDZEqxrVIWdS_TOE5wihkz15032r= gXTzJjC0KmHX3Ug4d4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38217795 38947799 39877818 40577815 40737785 40547739
40027709 39427691 38957689 38667712 38527734 38217795=20


=3D =3D =3D
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