ACUS11 KWNS 161957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161957=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161957Z - 162230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of severe
hail are possible this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Robust surface heating has resulted in 80+ F
temperatures and subsequent storm initiation amid a well-mixed
boundary layer. While a general increase in storm coverage (and to a
degree, intensity) is expected through the afternoon, weak vertical
shear and mediocre mid-level lapse rates suggest storms should be
short-lived and primarily pulse cellular in nature. Nonetheless, 0-3
km lapse rates are steep, reaching 9 C/km in some locales per 19Z
mesoanalysis. As such, a couple of severe gusts may occur sometime
this afternoon within the stronger storm cores, especially if any
multicellular complexes can materialize. An instance or two of
severe hail also cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the overall
severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance appears
unlikely.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4djfD4JAMT3ysEyjyVAKN9JL-DZ0ymHDSt6rtJwmVrdscT3UlzzCwnTcPrSG3nfGPQPFxhsCJ= mJNTl7rqo6NZ5LrVjQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40100018 41739987 42789929 42969787 42829724 42299643
41479621 40779659 40209738 40099761 39929848 39909936
40100018=20


=3D =3D =3D
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