ACUS11 KWNS 161657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161657=20
ARZ000-161900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...Central/Southern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161657Z - 161900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster may strengthen as it moves
southeastward into more of central AR, with an attendant threat for
damaging gusts and large hail. Convective trends will be monitored
for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster in the FSM vicinity has trended
towards more forward propagation over the past hour or so. The
warm-air advection helping to support this elevated cluster is
forecast to continue weakening over the next few hours. Given that
this cluster is north of the stronger buoyancy, there is some
uncertainty regarding how this weakening will impact the ongoing
cluster. That being said, the downstream airmass is destabilizing
amid a combination of low-level moisture recovery and daytime
heating. Additionally, this cluster is on the leading edge of a
shortwave trough and associated speed max rounding the ridge
extending up through the southern High Plains. As a result, despite
weakening low-level flow, the combination of large-scale lift and
downstream destabilization is expected to support the persistence,
and perhaps intensification, of this cluster. If intensification is
realized, a threat for damaging gusts and isolated large hail may
exist over central and southern AR this afternoon. Convective trends
will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6bvQO5OONJRdkyOajX22VVbM-Ib_6AXK2iioDTOV4iKNqWuoBiW7E0EA48rIaG4-n8iwA-yX8= A5cz4eIy8uYcz2Qicw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34579438 35359386 34999190 34309125 33289172 33659313
34579438=20


=3D =3D =3D
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