ACUS11 KWNS 161450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161450=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-161545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania...southern New Jersey...eastern Maryland...Delaware...eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161450Z - 161545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the Mid
Atlantic. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main threat. Trends
are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in strength and intensity
across portions of the Mid Atlantic ahead of an approaching cold
front and associated mid-level trough. Surface temperatures have
already warmed into the low to mid 70s F, that combined with low to
mid 60s F dewpoints, is contributing to 1000+ J/kg of tall/thin
SBCAPE (given mediocre mid-level lapse rates). Gradual veering and strengthening with height supports modestly curved/lengthened
hodographs, favoring multicellular clusters and short line segments
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance may be needed if a widespread enough severe threat
becomes apparent.

..Squitieri.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WZ1wRjtCUfJN-ciIARrNsglkUPdwWDk3Q7rQYs-r7HDortxTf8XOJfbzLQyAV4Y1yDKp4Re0= YxyfkGyxGY_w1rdAuM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38137764 39527641 40117573 40517480 40507421 40167395
39667415 39197466 38557504 37977534 37517565 37297611
37307675 37437733 38137764=20


=3D =3D =3D
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