ACUS11 KWNS 161403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161403=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-161530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...FL Panhandle...Far Southwest GA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...316...

Valid 161403Z - 161530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315, 316
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts will remain possible as the ongoing
convective line moves eastward/southeastward into far southeast AL,
the central/eastern FL Panhandle, and far southwest GA.

DISCUSSION...Recent estimates place the storm motion of the ongoing
line around 50 kt to the southeast. The downstream air mass is
characterized by temperatures in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in
the low 70s. However, despite this low-level moisture, warm
low/mid-level temperatures are limiting the overall buoyancy while
also contributing to convective inhibition. This inhibition is
expected to persist, likely contributing to general decrease in
storm intensity over time. That being said, the currently organized
character of the line, and associated ascent along the cold pool,
combined with the presence of modest mid-level lapse should still
support a continued threat for damaging gusts for the next few hours
as the line moves eastward.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-T7NRwK2b6eakZLQX4IyM8TNbX0-sM-9CPGGKYmjQAohvdWGidYcBThXq9KxTHJ0vD_mXeAOh= jghWSvDfkJo5HaKC0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30418876 30568856 30578800 30718760 31078729 31558705
31648650 30758357 30048320 29588390 29768560 30098681
30128828 30418876=20


=3D =3D =3D
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