ACUS11 KWNS 160823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160823=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-161030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...northeast Texas into western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

Valid 160823Z - 161030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
continues.

SUMMARY...A few storms producing severe hail and wind may persist
beyond watch 313 expiration time over northeast TX, and perhaps
extending into western LA.

DISCUSSION...A few severe storms persist tonight over northeast TX,
elevated above the outflow from the recent MCS now over
north-central LA. While the surface air mass has been cooled, robust
moisture with dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 F exists south
of the outflow boundary, contributing to strong instability.
Elevated instability remains substantial as well, as southwesterly
winds above the surface maintain a feed of higher theta-e air atop
the outflow boundary.

Recent radar trends show strengthening of the westernmost line of
storms now moving into Van Zandt County, TX. This line is oriented
parallel to the 850 mb winds, and southern parts of the line appear
to be propagating in more of a south/southeast direction. Echo tops
are impressive at over 60,000 ft AGL, and, wind gusts near severe
levels have been measured, even in the cooler outflow air.=20

Given the very strong instability and aforementioned inflow
trajectories for these storms, they may continue to pose a severe
hail and wind risk for a few more hours, extending in time beyond
watch 313 expiration of 09Z. As such, local county extensions may
become necessary.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-yGrZ3XHREkHOcfln2YbaCquxN_6Lk0LJNwnP4WBqypSaiukcXYquBDzm4XGnQ7wyU-h8GBqU= QpKOwLmJbJ8J7onmD8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31979607 32489625 32839616 33129574 33239546 33079511
32759463 32439416 32139350 31589339 31219358 31069433
31149461 31629524 31979607=20


=3D =3D =3D
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