ACUS11 KWNS 160637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160636=20
FLZ000-160900-
Mesoscale Discussion 1097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Areas affected...eastern Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 160636Z - 160900Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to persist tonight from the
eastern Florida Panhandle into northern Florida, and a brief tornado
or two cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations across the area indicate a warm
front/theta-e gradient extending from central portions of the FL
Panhandle east/southeastward near the coast. While many stations
over land are reporting dewpoints near 70 F, a few coastal locations
show the very moist tropical air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is
very close to spreading inland. Indeed, multiple buoys confirm
dewpoints in the lower 80s F over the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
which results in very strong instability.
Weak warm advection and minimal CIN are aiding storm formation
currently, due to mean boundary-layer winds out of the southwest
across the theta-e gradient. Although winds around 850 mb may veer
with time, 0-1 km SRH is currently averaging near 150 m2/s2 over
land, and periodic mesocyclones have been observed on radar. Trends
will continue to be monitored for a possible increase in storm
coverage.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/16/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92Z1iH6kormsRjJfrtT4ulO7J1lcVxEJxyF3vS8ALZBZ1X7Y2Vh0gv0YkXVTWN0n67ROgw-R6= 1VZ-DK7S45TRLEGxFs$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30008562 30348483 30548442 30568312 30408283 30148269
29858259 29608263 29618271 29338298 29398339 29748371
29998401 29968426 29738458 29468487 29548523 29628540
30008562=20
=3D =3D =3D
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