ACUS11 KWNS 160629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160628 COR
FLZ000-160900-
Mesoscale Discussion 1096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Areas affected...eastern Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 160628Z - 160900Z
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to persist tonight from the
eastern Florida Panhandle into northern Florida, and a brief tornado
or two cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations across the area indicate a warm
front/theta-e gradient extending from central portions of the FL
Panhandle east/southeastward near the coast. While many stations
over land are reporting dewpoints near 70 F, a few coastal locations
show the very moist tropical air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is
very close to spreading inland. Indeed, multiple buoys confirm
dewpoints in the lower 80s F over the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
which results in very strong instability.
Weak warm advection and minimal CIN are aiding storm formation
currently, due to mean boundary-layer winds out of the southwest
across the theta-e gradient. Although winds around 850 mb may veer
with time, 0-1 km SRH is currently averaging near 150 m2/s2 over
land, and periodic mesocyclones have been observed on radar. Trends
will continue to be monitored for a possible increase in storm
coverage.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/16/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yCtYFZoWzOd5AMw4LLTerh8yBHCVBjnEmrhp_lsIm_LrjbSO7bThic9LkRsFgVz4gN48tN5p= 3PYhmL-wsEgzffxLe4$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30008562 30348483 30548442 30568312 30408283 30148269
29858259 29608263 29618271 29338298 29398339 29748371
29998401 29968426 29738458 29468487 29548523 29628540
30008562=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)