ACUS11 KWNS 160603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160602=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160602Z - 160900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A bowing storm complex is expected to remain severe as it
moves rapidly east/southeastward from northeast Texas into much of
northern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A storm complex over northeast TX is currently
producing severe gusts, with 60 kt measured at KOSA recently. The
SHV radar also shows a large area of severe winds at lowest tilt,
with indications of significant gusts over 75 mph. Notably, this bow
is around 25 miles wide, with echo tops well over 60,000 feet AGL.
In addition, the stronger embedded cores within the complex may
contain hail, which could be wind driven.

Moisture and instability are impressive in the vicinity of this
storm, and extending downstream across LA where dewpoints are in the
upper 70s to near 80 F. Not only does this provide strong
instability for this convective system to thrive on, but it also
minimized capping. Meanwhile, west to northwest winds aloft are
resulting in effective shear over 50 kt, and oriented roughly
parallel a warm front/theta-e gradient which extends from the
Arklatex across south-central MS to coastal AL.

The combination of strong instability, ample moisture, and long
hodographs will continue to favor a mostly forward-propagating
severe bow capable of significant damaging winds. The severe wind
threat is expected to persist through morning, and may eventually
reach the northern Gulf Coast as it moves at nearly 50 kt.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9BKlR9e551xmNS5vKJ_EVB-fTbED8U2-8vmaEsrXXlowSORWH0OkvytoK7asy_vdy0wn4V7Lk= WuFzMCs2UgOYw1quJ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31339330 31729481 31929503 32129489 32279444 32499424
32939400 33029362 32348996 31428902 30888906 30638962
31179251 31339330=20


=3D =3D =3D
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