ACUS11 KWNS 160429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160429=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...northeast Texas...southwest Arkansas and
northwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

Valid 160429Z - 160600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging
winds and large hail into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 0425 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
clusters of severe storms ongoing along the Red River and into
northeast TX. The eastern most cluster has shown signs of cold pool intensification and a bowing structure over the last hour.
Observational trends favor continued motion along the instability
gradient to the southeast over the next few hours. Given background
wind fields and buoyancy remain strong, damaging winds (some 75+
mph) and hail will remain possible as the complex eventually moves
into far northeast TX and northwestern LA tonight.

Farther west near the Red River, additional storm development has
occurred along the trailing outflow. Less organized than the eastern
cluster, individual storms, including a few supercells, may remain semi-discrete for another hour or two before storm interaction
result in upscale growth. Given the more cellular nature, large hail
will remain a threat initially with the large reservoir of buoyancy
(5000+ J/KG MUCAPE) and 60+ kt of effective shear. A greater risk
for damaging winds north of DFW may evolve if storms are able to
remain organized and grow upscale later this evening. WW313 may need
to be locally extended westward to cover the threat near the Red
River given the redevelopment.

..Lyons.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7QWtTO-uwfySgrew18VtovzKRZnxj4hUpCHpdDkyLG43bIuDLB5wVzZL56yG6MUeaYmA67VQ5= rX1ytjdiFUTBQyZQu4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32609662 33099741 33259754 33549769 33849774 33969742
33869514 33559377 33019317 32419293 32119290 31859326
31809420 31899519 32079566 32209610 32609662=20


=3D =3D =3D
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