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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1092

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 16 03:13:21 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 160313
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160313=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1092
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1013 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas...far southeast
    Oklahoma and northwestern Louisiana.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 160313Z - 160415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will exit WW309 in the next 1-2 hours with a
    continued risk primarily for damaging winds hail, and a tornado or
    two. A new watch is needed prior to 05z.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing mixed-mode cluster of supercells and short
    bowing segments across portions of North Texas have begun to
    accelerate southeastward over the last 30 min. Additional storms
    moving in from southern Oklahoma should aid in cold pool
    acceleration over the next hour. Approaching the eastern edge of
    WW309, these storms should continue to move into an unstable and
    strongly sheared environment with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-60
    kt of effective shear. Given the upscale growth over the last hour,
    damaging winds and isolated hail are expected to be the primary
    threat into the overnight hours. However, backed low-level flow
    along and effective warm front/outflow boundary may still support a
    risk for a tornado or two this evening. A new weather watch is
    likely needed prior to 0500z across portions of Northeast TX,
    southeastern OK and northwestern LA.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!64S9wtaNPbXBaXNeDJ18MQNqCyMTDfcnbVCEfjCznUNSur5D7R0MIVuoXo2h91crwentvdVAE= DGjTAqyaF_caF8p9xU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33049325 32899328 32359365 32229398 32189433 32379536
    32549582 32639613 32929636 33129628 33709602 33989584
    34149573 34339507 34329470 34259435 33899354 33509317
    33049325=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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