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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1091

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 16 02:35:52 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 160235
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160235=20
    OKZ000-160330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1091
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0935 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

    Valid 160235Z - 160330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The significant severe weather threat will continue over
    the next few hours across central Oklahoma with large hail and
    damaging winds being the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The convective evolution over Oklahoma has become messy
    over the last couple of hours, as increasing low-level warm
    advection has resulted in the initiation of several storms ahead of
    the primary convective line. In addition, the supercell cluster
    that moved across southwestern Oklahoma earlier in the day has
    stabilized the low levels, as indicated by dewpoints in the low 60s
    across much of southwestern Oklahoma. As a result, the tornado
    threat has decreased across the state, but sufficient instability
    and shear remain for organized storms and severe weather this
    evening.

    The severe hail threat will be greatest for discrete storms ahead of
    the line in central Oklahoma, where an axis of mid-to-upper 60s
    dewpoints remain. The convective line farther west will primarily
    pose a severe wind threat. As these storms move eastward and the
    boundary layer stabilizes, they will encounter a less favorable
    environment for surface-based parcels. A narrow northwest-southeast
    axis of higher moisture/instability exists from central to southeast
    Oklahoma, which will offer the best corridor for continued severe
    wind potential.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_RTjPqvr2QKa8FY-ur5nehQSHMr7LoipkWM-KBV7SKDtTriYRi_zbYC9FjfWAb44Y35fE4uZK= POE29nNFstuAky-Duk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34939903 35399831 35869790 36419765 36609724 36559685
    36189649 35859636 35209643 34469601 34129631 34149704
    34239812 34939903=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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