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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1089

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 16 01:45:20 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 160145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160144=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-160315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1089
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0844 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...far southern Oklahoma and portions of North Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...

    Valid 160144Z - 160315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309 continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms including several supercells across
    the northern half of WW 309 should continue southeastward this
    evening with a threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0130z, several long-lived supercells were ongoing
    across northern portions of WW309. Located along an effective warm
    front near the Red River, area VADs show relatively large low-level
    hodographs with 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. As these supercells
    continue southeastward, largely untouched buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg
    of MLCAPE) and the enhanced low-level shear should support a
    continued threat for a couple of tornadoes for a few more hours this
    evening. Some upscale growth/additional storm development has been
    noted over the last 1-2 hours. The damaging wind threat may increase
    this evening as storm interactions and upscale growth increase with
    the intensifying low-level jet. Given the very favorable CAPE/shear
    parameter space, the storms should continue southeast for several
    more hours approaching the eastern edge of WW309 around 0300z.

    ..Lyons.. 06/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Zk1tXe4w-fQEpdgnXMXZjJ2qe6wDHC8_r0SBos8OT0IgL0r8xCcJTPt1qDrdtuhIDZZ5GcGQ= eglAqApwIDzTvupNYE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34259632 33849525 33339519 33049517 32909523 32849532
    32599598 32559644 32569668 32579699 32969747 33639813
    34079783 34129687 34259632=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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